Central Asia Climate Agenda: Key Outcomes of Cooperation

Central Asia is increasingly exposed to the consequences of climate change and is now considered one of the most vulnerable regions in the world.

Over the past 70 years, temperatures in Central Asia have risen by 1.5–2 degrees Celsius. This has intensified environmental challenges, accelerated glacier melting, and contributed to desertification. These processes are interconnected and have a negative impact on ecosystems, economies, and the livelihoods of people across the region.

On a global scale, the rate of ice loss due to climate change has increased by 65% in recent years. In the early 1990s, the planet was losing about 0.8 trillion tons of ice annually, while in the 2000s this figure rose to 1.3 trillion tons.

For Central Asia, this environmental challenge ranks among the most pressing climate risks of the present time.

The region is also experiencing growing water scarcity. Today, more than 37 million people live in areas facing acute water shortages, mainly due to declining water availability and insufficient infrastructure development.

According to estimates by the Eurasian Development Bank, investments required for water and climate infrastructure in Central Asia during 2025–2030 amount to approximately US$29.2 billion.

The situation is further aggravated by conditions in the Aral Sea region. Each year, winds carry between 15 and 75 million tons of sand, dust, and salt from the dried seabed, significantly degrading air quality over large distances and causing direct socio-economic losses.

As a result, environmental issues have become a higher priority in the regional agenda in recent years. Water management, land degradation, climate change, and the Aral Sea crisis are now being addressed not separately, but within the broader context of sustainable socio-economic development.

Thanks to the political will of Central Asian leaders, multilateral environmental cooperation has become more structured and substantive.

A key factor in this progress has been the strengthening of institutional frameworks for regional cooperation. Alongside existing mechanisms such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea and its structures, environmental issues have also been consistently integrated into consultative meetings of heads of state and into interagency and expert-level dialogue.

The region has also become more active on international climate platforms. In particular, at United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conferences, Central Asian countries have begun выступing under the slogan “5 countries – 1 region – 1 voice,” presenting both national priorities and shared regional approaches to climate issues.

All Central Asian states have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and set ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, expand renewable energy capacity, and strengthen adaptation capabilities.

Kazakhstan has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Uzbekistan has set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 50% by 2035 compared to 2010 levels. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan have also reaffirmed their commitment to global climate goals and continue to update their national contributions to make them more ambitious.

Notable progress has also been achieved in addressing the consequences of the Aral Sea crisis. In Uzbekistan alone, 1.7 million hectares of forest plantations have been established over the past five years on the dried seabed of the Aral Sea. In Kazakhstan, afforestation and land reclamation works have been carried out on more than 1 million hectares.

One of the most tangible results of regional cooperation has been the improvement of conditions in the Northern Aral Sea. Through coordinated water reservoir management on the Syr Darya River and implementation of interstate agreements, more than 6 billion cubic meters of water have entered the sea over the past three years. As a result, the volume of the Northern Aral increased from 18.9 billion cubic meters at the end of 2022 to 23 billion cubic meters at the end of 2025.

Regional cooperation is also expanding in knowledge exchange and scientific environmental expertise. One of the key outcomes has been the establishment of the Central Asian University for Environmental Studies and Climate Change in Uzbekistan, which has become a new regional platform for training specialists and conducting joint research.

Overall, environmental cooperation in Central Asia is gradually becoming more practical and results-oriented. Significant progress has been achieved in forming a common international position, developing coordination mechanisms, restoring Aral Sea ecosystems, and building scientific and educational capacity.

At the same time, the scale of environmental challenges still requires deeper coordination. Key priorities include developing more aligned approaches to transboundary water management, expanding climate adaptation measures, mobilizing long-term investments in water and environmental infrastructure, and strengthening regional analytical capacity.

The effectiveness of the region’s environmental agenda in the coming years will depend on how consistently Central Asian countries translate political cooperation into sustainable joint mechanisms.

The upcoming Regional Environmental Summit in Astana in April will represent another step toward achieving shared climate objectives. The development of new practical solutions to address climate and environmental challenges is expected to contribute not only to the region’s role in the global climate agenda but also to strengthening ecosystem resilience, reducing air pollution, and improving the management of water and energy resources.

Elvira Bikeeva, Project Head, IMRI

Malika Saparhuametova, Senior Specialist, IMRI